Decisive by Chip & Dan Heath

Author:Chip & Dan Heath
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Joosr Ltd

To challenge overconfidence, consider the best- and worst-case scenario

In order for us to make wise choices without knowing exactly what the future holds, we must show humility. All too often we are overconfident in our decision-making abilities. Again, this causes us to make rash decisions without fully considering the consequences.

When we are confident of something, we do not consider other options—and sometimes the consequences can be extremely detrimental. In fact, studies have shown that even when doctors make a diagnosis of a patient with complete clarity and certainty, this diagnosis proves to be wrong up to 40 percent of the time. Serious medical errors can be made because of such overconfidence.

To challenge your overconfidence, try “bookending” the future. Consider the best-case scenario and the worst-case scenario related to your current situation. This way you can truly reflect on the potential consequences of your decision. When you consider the two extremes—the very good and the very bad—you will be reminded of the reality of the situation, and, if necessary, will think about alternative options or take extra precautions.

Start by making a “premortem” about the decision; this will be your worst-case scenario. As negative as it seems, try to think of the failure of a future decision. For example, imagine you’re creating a website. Consider what would happen if, in a year’s time, it had not generated any traffic. Write down all of the reasons why this might have happened—this way, you can begin to think about and prevent as many negative scenarios as possible.

After making your premortem, you should then move on to the “preparade.” This is the best-case scenario. So, going back to your website, imagine that in a year’s time the site has done so well that you are making money through advertising. Now you can consider what led to this success, which will let you make the right choices to ensure that this situation actually happens.

When it comes to making decisions, we are often too confident, which causes us to overlook any issues that might arise. We will make better, more accurate decisions and predictions when we have a range of possibilities to consider and work from. Create this range by thinking of both the best- and worst-case scenarios, and use these to guide you toward decision-making success.

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